Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AEROMÉXICO CONNECT · FLIGHT 5D 430 LANDED 2:31 PM ET, ~27 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, October 27 Today

5D 430 · MEX → RDU

took off · landed 2:31 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 9am departures from MEX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

Weather at each end

MEX (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

5D 430 · MEX → RDU

Odds over time