Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AEROMÉXICO CONNECT · FLIGHT 5D 431 LANDED 6:22 PM CST, ~10 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, October 27 Today

5D 431 · RDU → MEX

took off 4:27 PM ET · landed 6:22 PM CST (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at MEX more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 4pm departures from RDU are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MEX (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

5D 431 · RDU → MEX

Odds over time