9E 5223 · JFK → BUF

took off 9:07 AM ET · expected to land 9:53 AM ET (scheduled 9:22 AM ET → 10:41 AM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BUF?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ JFK is busy at that time

↑ 9am departures from JFK are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5223 · JFK → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?