9E 5240 · ROC → DTW

departs 10:03 AM ET · arrives 11:27 AM ET

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

5% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ROC

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ROC (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5240 · ROC → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?