Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

CAPE AIR · FLIGHT 9K 278 LANDED 6:48 PM AT, ~10 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, October 27 Today

9K 278 · AXA → SJU

took off 5:49 PM AST · landed 6:48 PM AT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SJU is prone to delays

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at AXA

↑ Arrivals into SJU at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 9K's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

AXA (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

SJU (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9K 278 · AXA → SJU

Odds over time