Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 2020
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
9X 2020 · OGG → LNY
departs 8:32 AM HT · arrives 9:23 AM HT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LNY more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LNY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at LNY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LNY?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at LNY that day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at OGG that day
↓
8am departures from OGG are usually not late
↓
Arrivals into LNY at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
OGG (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.27 in
LNY (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.34 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.