Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 2440
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
9X 2440 · OGG → LNY
departs 3:59 PM HT · arrives 4:49 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LNY more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LNY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at LNY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LNY?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG
↑
Visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at LNY that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
LNY usually runs smoothly
↓
Arrivals into LNY at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
OGG (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.28 in
LNY (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.