Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 405
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
9X 405 · DFW → HRO
departs 8:55 AM CT · arrives 11:07 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 9%
Thu 10/29 9%
Fri 10/30 14%
Sat 10/31 17%
Sun 11/1 14%
Mon 11/2 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at HRO more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HRO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at HRO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HRO?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
This route's recent record
↑
8am departures from DFW are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HRO (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.