Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 512 LANDED 6:37 AM HT, ~1 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, October 27 Today

9X 512 · OGG → MKK

took off 6:16 AM HT · landed 6:37 AM HT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at MKK more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MKK that day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ 6am departures from OGG are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.27 in

MKK (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.52 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9X 512 · OGG → MKK

Odds over time