Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 551
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
9X 551 · MKK → HNL
departs 7:47 PM HT · arrives 8:13 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 5h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 37%
Thu 10/29 31%
Fri 10/30 23%
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.1d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at HNL that day
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MKK that day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
7pm departures from MKK are usually not late
Weather at each end
MKK (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.12 in
HNL (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.49 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.