Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 629
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
9X 629 · MKK → HNL
departs 6:25 AM HT · arrives 7:23 AM HT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 19%
Sun 11/1 12%
Mon 11/2 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MKK that day
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at HNL that day
↓
Arrivals into HNL at that hour are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
MKK (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.52 in
HNL (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.66 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.