Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 8021
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
9X 8021 · MEM → JBR
departs 7:43 PM CT · arrives 8:38 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at JBR more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JBR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at JBR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to JBR?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
7pm departures from MEM are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MEM (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JBR (destination)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.