Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 8520
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
9X 8520 · LNY → MKK
departs 8:49 AM HT · arrives 9:32 AM HT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MKK more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave LNY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at MKK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MKK?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at MKK that day
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at LNY that day
↓
Arrivals into MKK at that hour are usually not late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LNY (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.34 in
MKK (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.52 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.