Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 8550
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
9X 8550 · LUP → MKK
departs 9:24 AM HT · arrives 10:00 AM HT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MKK more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Arrive at MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave LUP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at MKK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MKK?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at MKK that day
↑
Other factors
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LUP
↓
Arrivals into MKK at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
LUP (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MKK (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.52 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.