Schedule: FAA flight plans.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1109 DELAYED: NOW PLANNED TO TAKE OFF 12:32 PM CT (16 MIN LATER THAN FIRST FILED)

Tuesday, October 27 Today

AA 1109 · DFW → PHL

departs 12:07 PM CT · arrives 4:34 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1109 · DFW → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?