AA 1954 · SFO → ORD

took off 11:49 PM PT · expected to land 5:23 AM CT (scheduled 12:01 AM PT → 6:11 AM CT)

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

ORD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1954 · SFO → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?