AA 2485 · ORD → JFK

departs 1:29 PM CT · arrives 4:40 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling11,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2485 · ORD → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?