AA 2647 · DFW → SJD

took off 11:20 AM CT · landed 11:50 AM MST (scheduled 10:43 AM CT → 11:47 AM MST)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at SJD more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SJD?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 44% of the time recently

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SJD (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2647 · DFW → SJD

Odds over time

How late did it get to SJD?