AC 1043 · YYZ → AUS

took off 8:40 AM EDT · landed 10:52 AM CT (scheduled 8:10 AM EDT → 11:30 AM CT)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to AUS?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at YYZ

↑ 8am departures from YYZ are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

YYZ (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AC 1043 · YYZ → AUS

Odds over time

How late did it get to AUS?