Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA · FLIGHT AC 1051 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27 Today

AC 1051 · YUL → AUS

departs 4:39 PM EDT · arrives 8:04 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS

Weather at each end

YUL (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

AUS (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AC 1051 · YUL → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?