Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA · FLIGHT AC 1266 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday

AC 1266 · YUL → TPA

departs 4:39 PM EDT · arrives 8:24 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

Weather at each end

YUL (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

TPA (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AC 1266 · YUL → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?