Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA · FLIGHT AC 541 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27 Today

AC 541 · YYZ → SEA

departs 6:44 PM EDT · arrives 8:55 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±2 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at SEA that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

YYZ (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

SEA (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AC 541 · YYZ → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?