Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA · FLIGHT AC 568 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27 Today

AC 568 · YVR → SFO

departs 4:09 PM PDT · arrives 6:48 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at YVR

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

YVR (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AC 568 · YVR → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?