Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA · FLIGHT AC 595 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday

AC 595 · YYZ → IAH

departs 7:19 PM EDT · arrives 9:41 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from YYZ are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 0.3 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

Weather at each end

YYZ (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

IAH (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.32 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AC 595 · YYZ → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?