Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AZUL · FLIGHT AD 8704 LANDED 5:40 AM ET, ~16 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, October 27 Today

AD 8704 · VCP → FLL

took off · landed 5:40 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±2 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 35 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at FLL that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at VCP

Weather at each end

VCP (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FLL (destination) Gusts34 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.47 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AD 8704 · VCP → FLL

Odds over time