Schedule: FAA flight plans.

AEROMÉXICO · FLIGHT AM 633 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Tuesday, October 27 Today

AM 633 · SAT → MEX

took off 2:09 PM CT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 1:57 PM CT → 3:11 PM CST)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at MEX more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MEX?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from SAT are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at SAT that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEX

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MEX (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AM 633 · SAT → MEX

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEX?