AM 669 · SFO → MEX

took off 4:13 PM PT · expected to land 8:58 PM CST (scheduled 2:34 PM PT → 7:45 PM CST)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at MEX more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MEX?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
98%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is busy at that time

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MEX (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AM 669 · SFO → MEX

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEX?