AS 1053 · HNL → LIH

took off 10:03 AM HT · landed 10:22 AM HT (scheduled 9:52 AM HT → 10:47 AM HT)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to LIH?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LIH is prone to delays

↑ 0.7 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ 9am departures from HNL are usually not late

↓ Arrivals into LIH at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.42 in

LIH (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.70 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1053 · HNL → LIH

Odds over time

How late did it get to LIH?