Schedule: FAA flight plans.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1075 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Tuesday, October 27

AS 1075 · OGG → HNL

took off 10:42 AM HT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 10:06 AM HT → 10:48 AM HT)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ 0.7 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ Other factors

↓ 10am departures from OGG are usually not late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.23 in

HNL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.42 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1075 · OGG → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?