Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1331 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27

AS 1331 · SAN → SFO

departs 5:47 PM PT · arrives 7:22 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts −13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 45% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from SAN are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1331 · SAN → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?