Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 228 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27

AS 228 · LIH → SAN

departs 10:46 AM HT · arrives 7:24 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at LIH that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.70 in

SAN (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 228 · LIH → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?