AS 231 · ANC → OME

took off 3:32 PM AKT · landed 4:57 PM AKDT (scheduled 3:32 PM AKT → 5:22 PM AKDT)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at OME more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to OME?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 32 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at OME that day

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at ANC that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ OME usually runs smoothly

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

OME (destination) Gusts32 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.54 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 231 · ANC → OME

Odds over time

How late did it get to OME?