Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 2616 LANDED 8:00 PM ET, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, October 27

AS 2616 · SBD → CVG

took off 1:28 PM PT · landed 8:00 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into CVG at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SBD (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

CVG (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 2616 · SBD → CVG

Odds over time