AS 284 · SEA → FAI

took off 7:01 PM PT · landed 9:25 PM AKT (scheduled 6:47 PM PT → 9:45 PM AKT)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at FAI more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to FAI?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.13 mi forecast at FAI that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into FAI at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.04 in

FAI (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 284 · SEA → FAI

Odds over time

How late did it get to FAI?