AS 558 · OGG → PDX

took off 10:00 PM HT · landed 5:50 AM PT (scheduled 9:49 PM HT → 6:09 AM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late did it get to PDX?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG

↑ Cloud base down to 1,400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at PDX that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ 9pm departures from OGG are usually not late

↓ Arrivals into PDX at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.23 in

PDX (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 558 · OGG → PDX

Odds over time

How late did it get to PDX?