Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 7004 LANDED 4:06 PM AKDT, ~80 MIN EARLY

Tuesday, October 27

AS 7004 · KTN → SIT

took off 3:31 PM AKDT · landed 4:06 PM AKDT (scheduled 4:22 PM AKDT → 5:30 PM AKDT)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SIT more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SIT?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ 4pm departures from KTN are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into SIT at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

KTN (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.12 in

SIT (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 7004 · KTN → SIT

Odds over time

How late did it get to SIT?