AS 839 · HNL → SJC

took off 1:00 PM HT · landed 8:46 PM PT (scheduled 11:40 AM HT → 7:49 PM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SJC?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 50% of the time recently

↑ 0.7 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.42 in

SJC (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 839 · HNL → SJC

Odds over time

How late did it get to SJC?