Schedule: FAA flight plans.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 849 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Tuesday, October 27

AS 849 · HNL → KIX

took off 2:04 PM HT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 1:58 PM HT → 6:21 PM JST)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at KIX more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to KIX?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.7 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 1pm departures from HNL are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into KIX at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.42 in

KIX (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 849 · HNL → KIX

Odds over time

How late will it get to KIX?