Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 9286 LANDED 12:39 AM HT, ~49 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, October 27

AS 9286 · PPG → HNL

took off · landed 12:39 AM HT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PPG (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.42 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 9286 · PPG → HNL

Odds over time