Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 9942 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27

AS 9942 · HNL → KOA

departs 1:09 PM HT · arrives 2:36 PM HT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to KOA?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.7 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ KOA is prone to delays

↑ 1pm departures from HNL are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.42 in

KOA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 9942 · HNL → KOA

Odds over time

How late will it get to KOA?