Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 9950 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27

AS 9950 · KOA → HNL

departs 3:19 PM HT · arrives 4:11 PM HT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 3pm departures from KOA are usually not late

Weather at each end

KOA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.07 in

HNL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.42 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 9950 · KOA → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?