AV 228 · BAQ → FLL

departs 3:31 PM -05 · arrives 7:26 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FLL?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
20%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 35 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at FLL that day

↑ Arrivals into FLL at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BAQ

Weather at each end

BAQ (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FLL (destination) Gusts35 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.38 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AV 228 · BAQ → FLL

Odds over time

How late will it get to FLL?