B6 128 · MCO → EWR

departs 2:09 PM ET · arrives 4:52 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±5 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Gusts to 34 kt forecast at MCO that day

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts34 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

EWR (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

B6 128 · MCO → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?