Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 161 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27

B6 161 · JFK → SMF

departs 6:20 PM ET · arrives 9:49 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↑ 6pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ B6's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

B6 161 · JFK → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?