B6 1976 · PVD → MCO

took off 7:30 AM ET · expected to land 9:58 AM ET (scheduled 7:27 AM ET → 10:26 AM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCO?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ B6's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ MCO is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PVD

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

PVD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts33 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

B6 1976 · PVD → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?