B6 2128 · MCO → EWR

took off 11:08 PM ET · landed 1:06 AM ET (scheduled 9:13 PM ET → 11:54 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to EWR?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 46% of the time recently

↑ B6's recent on-time record

↑ 9pm departures from MCO are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

B6 2128 · MCO → EWR

Odds over time

How late did it get to EWR?