Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 263
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27
B6 263 · JFK → SEA
departs 5:36 PM ET · arrives 9:04 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 38%
Fri 10/30 42%
Sat 10/31 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at SEA that day
↑
Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.