Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 264
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27
B6 264 · SEA → JFK
departs 10:19 PM PT · arrives 6:39 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 32%
Sat 10/31 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.1d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.04 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.