B6 483 · JFK → MCO

departs 2:52 PM ET · arrives 5:34 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts −16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ B6's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts33 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

B6 483 · JFK → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?