B6 813 · HPN → FLL

took off 8:30 AM ET · expected to land 11:04 AM ET (scheduled 8:30 AM ET → 11:27 AM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to FLL?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 34 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at FLL that day

↑ B6's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HPN

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HPN (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FLL (destination) Gusts34 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.45 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

B6 813 · HPN → FLL

Odds over time

How late will it get to FLL?